Basically, we're all screwed...
The last few weeks have seen nearly every political analyst and every supposed-revolutionary taking a decidedly anti-Muslim Brotherhood stance and, for the first time, making clear statements that Morsi must go, instead of praying and hoping that the Ikhwan will reform. There is nothing particularly bad about this; it is, in fact, a welcome change but, ironically, it seems like these people who once had influence (at the time of the presidential elections) have only just reached the same conclusion that 75% (49% who voted Shafik and those who abstained from the vote) of Egypt knew months ago: the Muslim Brotherhood would never be democratic and, once in power, would never leave. Sadly,we’ve come to a point when these people (who could and would have made a difference, had they realised this earlier) are now irrelevant and kind of whiney. These are the same people who called anyone of any rational thought felool and, in many cases, such as members of 6th of April Movement, actually voted forMorsi. In case you didn’t know, their support of Morsi was rewarded a couple of days ago when their leader Ahmed Maher was arrested. LOLZ.
My problem is many of these analysts and revolutionaries should have known better; there is a big difference between not voting Shafik and voting Morsi. In the age of social media, tracking past statements has never been easier and following anyone of these people on Twitter is hilarious, starting from proudly tweeting “I’m voting Morsi,” to questioning the revolution in just a few, short months. I would like to confirm that, statistically, Tawfik Okasha has been more on the money when predicting what the MB would do, than every revolutionary put together. The only people who were consistent in their fears and also correct in their analysis have been “Hezb ElKanaba”, having correctly asserted that all of this would happen all from the comfort of their homes, armed with nothing but sanity and a TV remote.
Moving forward, I am pretty much saying that we shouldn’t bother having hopes as they will only be crushed under the exposed-toe, sandaled feet of our bearded leaders. Maybe I'm naïve and go ahead and call me crazy, but I think Mubarak was toppled not by the liberals singing songs in Tahrir and then promptly posting their videos on YouTube, but maybe, just maybe, by the Ikhwan’s fighting ability against the police, and by creating violence and panic through organised prison break-outs. When faced with the option of two tyrants in an election, at a time when revolutionaries should have stated (then and not now) that “the revolution continues,” they were tricked into voting Morsi as easily as, well... as easily as tricking themselves into thinking that singing in Tahrir toppled a dictator of 30 years.
What will happen in Egypt? Well firstly, it’s unlikely that there will be military coup though there was a slight possibility of that earlier this year. Somehow, the MB weathered that storm and stayed in government despite their miserable failure in running the country, as well as killing of protestors. Frankly the army is quite content where it is: all of the money, none of the responsibility.
Secondly, the MB will slowly look to take over most institutions because no one else has the energy to stop them. They have already taken over Parliament, Shoura and are infiltrating the army, police and judiciary.
Finally, the economy will essentially collapse which gives rise to two options: 1) a revolution of the hungry, which, if it happens, will see the collapse of society because there is no body, army included, which can stop millions of rampaging poor destroying everything in their path or, option 2) the poorest become more reliant on the Ihkwan for basic needs (even if it's worse for them than Mubarak) and will remain subdued.
The point of this article is that we need a reality check. Yes, there will be a time when Egypt will get rid of religion-based tyranny but that length of time might give Mubarak’s tenure a run for its money. The people have spoken and have concluded they can't be bothered. It turns out going to Tahrir a lot and singing does nothing (who would have thought?). If this has depressed you, don’t be sad. We still have internet and can follow the trials and tribulations of Kim Kardashian’s pregnancy and, on the plus side, streaming E! on your computer will give you a better indication of what’s going to happen next than listening to any analyst from Egypt.)